Black Friday used to be simple. Shoppers lined up at midnight, doors flew open, and the biggest challenge for retailers was keeping shelves stocked. In 2025, the picture is much more complicated: shoppers don’t fully trust discounts, logistics networks are under pressure, Amazon is facing coordinated global strikes, and social media is full of “fake apology” ads and scam attempts.

If you sell online, this isn’t just interesting news. It directly affects your conversion rates, your margins and your ability to deliver orders on time.

In this article, we’ll break down the biggest shifts happening right now and, more importantly, what you can do to navigate Black Friday and the entire holiday season with less chaos and more control.

1. The Black Friday Trust Crisis Is Real

Lightspeed Commerce surveyed 1,500 consumers across age groups and found a deep “trust gap” around holiday deals. A massive 84% of shoppers believe retailers inflate prices ahead of Black Friday just to make discounts look bigger. Among Gen Z, skepticism is even higher.

Worse, the regret sets in fast. Many younger shoppers say they regret purchases within 24 hours and already expect to make returns.

What this means for sellers:

• Shoppers are more cautious before they click “buy”
• They are more likely to compare prices and dig into reviews
• They are more willing to return items quickly if they feel misled

In other words, blunt “70% OFF!!” messaging without proof now works against you. Shoppers aren’t just chasing discounts; they’re looking for brands they can trust long term.

How to respond

Instead of playing the fake “doorbuster” game, shift your strategy toward:

• Transparent pricing: Show clearly that your prices haven’t been inflated before the sale.
• Real value: Use bundles, freebies and upgrades instead of dubious “was $299, now $99” framing.
• Honest product content: Accurate titles, clear specs and realistic imagery reduce regret and returns.
• Strong post-purchase flows: Reassuring emails, how-to content and easy support keep buyers confident.

If you’re building flows through tools like Quixess, this is where smart automation shines: you can personalize offers, follow up with education, and detect at-risk orders before they turn into refunds.

2. Global Amazon Strikes: “Make Amazon Pay” Hits Black Friday

At the same time shoppers are doubting discounts, Amazon is facing pressure from another side: its own workforce and global activists.

The “Make Amazon Pay” campaign is coordinating strikes and protests in more than 30 countries over Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Workers and partner organizations are targeting Amazon’s labor practices, its political influence and its environmental footprint.

Their claims include:

• Unsafe and punishing productivity targets
• Union-busting and anti-worker tactics
• Growing influence over cloud, logistics, policing and border tech

For Amazon sellers, the immediate concern isn’t the politics – it’s the operational risk.

How this can impact your store

• Regional slowdowns in fulfillment and deliveries
• Longer response times for support and issue resolution
• Unpredictable delays in certain geographies

What to do now

• Add a small buffer to handling times, especially for FBA-heavy SKUs
• Monitor your late shipment and on-time delivery metrics closely
• Prepare FBM (fulfilled-by-merchant) backups for your top sellers
• Communicate clearly with customers if delays occur

The sellers who win are not the ones who promise “impossible speed,” but the ones who set realistic expectations and communicate clearly.

3. Amazon Warehouse Closure: Inventory Stuck in Arkansas

Beyond strikes, another Amazon story is quietly hitting sellers where it hurts: inventory trapped in a closed fulfillment center.

Amazon temporarily closed its LIT1 fulfillment center in Arkansas after structural engineers flagged design errors in a seismic zone. The building requires significant repairs to meet safety codes and is closed indefinitely.

For some sellers, this means:

• Inventory stored at LIT1 is essentially frozen
• Certain SKUs may appear sellable but have limited fulfillable stock
• Storage and aged inventory fees will be refunded, but lost sales will not

Immediate steps if you sell on Amazon

• Check your Inventory Ledger report to see if you have units at LIT1
• Replenish high-velocity SKUs to other FCs as soon as possible
• Spread critical inventory across multiple centers to reduce single-point risk
• If possible, mirror inventory on your own site or other marketplaces with independent fulfillment

This is a reminder that even the biggest fulfillment networks can have local failures. Diversification is not a luxury; it’s risk management.

4. Layoffs Across Logistics, Manufacturing and Food: Holiday Fragility

Black Friday 2025 also lands in the middle of major layoffs across U.S. supply chain industries. In just five weeks, companies in automotive, food processing, logistics and manufacturing have announced at least 11,934 job cuts.

Affected players include:

• Retail and logistics networks: Kroger, DuBois Logistics, HD Supply, UPS, GXO Logistics
• Food and CPG: Tyson Foods, Braga Fresh, Frito-Lay, R.C. Packing
• Manufacturing: Georgia-Pacific, window and door makers, boat and recreational goods companies
• Automotive and EV-related firms: GM, Yanfeng, Monarch Tractor and others

These cuts are driven by facility closures, EV market slowdowns, demand shifts and cost pressures.

Why this matters to ecommerce sellers

Even if your own sales are strong, the ecosystem you rely on is under strain:

• Fewer workers in warehouses and plants can mean slower restocking
• Facility closures can increase lead times and freight costs
• Certain categories (meat, snacks, apparel, parts, RV and outdoor goods) may see patchy availability

How to protect your margins

• Forecast beyond Black Friday: look at Q1 2026 and build buffers now
• Identify critical SKUs and secure multiple suppliers where possible
• Review your fulfillment mix: 3PLs, FBA, direct-to-consumer shipments and regional warehouses
• Avoid over-promising “instant” shipping on items with fragile supply

In short, don’t think of Black Friday as a one-weekend event. Think of it as the start of a fragile, extended peak season.

5. TikTok Shop: Extended Returns and Stricter After-Sales Performance

While Amazon navigates strikes and structural issues, TikTok Shop is playing a different game: extending the customer promise.

For Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025, TikTok Shop has:

• Extended return windows for BFCM orders through February 10, 2026
• Temporarily overridden seller-configured return windows for eligible orders placed between November 12 and December 31
• Tightened expectations around response times for returns, refund requests and messaging

If you sell on TikTok Shop, this changes your risk profile. Customers have more time to return, and the platform auto-approves refunds if you don’t respond on time.

How to stay compliant and profitable

• Monitor return and refund requests daily during the holiday period
• Respond within the required SLAs (2–4 business days depending on order value)
• Use auto-approval rules strategically for low-risk, low-ticket items
• Keep your 24-hour response rate high for customer chats
• Document and justify any return rejections with clear evidence

An extended return window doesn’t have to destroy your margins if you pair it with better product education, size guides, accurate photos and proactive customer support.

6. The Social Media “Fake Apology” Trend: Funny, But Dangerous

On Instagram and other platforms, brands have leaned into a new meme: the “fake apology” post.

You’ve probably seen versions like:

• “We’re sorry our gummies taste so good you can’t stop eating them.”
• “We apologize for making your skin so clear that people won’t stop complimenting you.”

These posts mimic serious corporate apology formats but twist them into self-praise. They generate high engagement at first, but fatigue is already setting in. Many marketers and PR experts now warn that overusing this trend can backfire, especially if a brand ever needs to issue a real apology.

Should you use this trend?

If you run a fun, personality-driven brand, a single, well-timed fake apology might work as a one-off. However:

• Don’t build your entire strategy around it
• Don’t blur the line between real crises and jokes
• Don’t use it in categories where safety, health or trust are central concerns

Long-term trust beats short-term virality every time.

7. Big Tech, New Tools and the Future of AI-Driven Commerce

Amid all this turmoil, there’s a quieter revolution happening: a wave of new tools that promise to make ecommerce smarter, more personalized and more automated.

Some of the most notable launches and updates include:

• AI-native product experience platforms that score content, automate alt tags and track competitors
• New “shopping research” features inside ChatGPT that act like personalized product advisors
• Agentic commerce tools from payment providers that let AI agents initiate and complete transactions
• Perplexity’s shopping integrations with PayPal for frictionless purchases
• Live shopping partnerships, such as QVC UK’s 10-hour TikTok Shop broadcast pulling TV-style commerce into mobile-first channels

For sellers, the key is not to chase every shiny AI feature. Instead, focus on tools that:

• Improve product data quality (titles, attributes, specs, media)
• Make it easier for customers to find the right product quickly
• Automate low-value tasks (tagging, basic support, simple returns)
• Give you better visibility into margins, fees and performance across channels

If you’re using a platform like Quixess, this is the perfect moment to connect your catalog, your content and your marketplace data into a single brain that can support smarter decisions.

8. Big-Box Retailers Under Pressure: Walmart, Amazon and Valuation Risk

It’s not just small sellers navigating a fragile economy. Even giants like Walmart and Amazon are caught between strong recent performance and uncomfortable macro realities.

Walmart’s stock is trading at a historically rich valuation, closer to a high-growth tech name than a mature retailer. At the same time, its own leadership is warning about an “affordability crisis” squeezing lower- and middle-income customers.

Amazon’s cloud arm, AWS, faces slower growth and regulatory pressure in Europe, even as the company doubles down on AI and automation investments. Historically, Amazon’s stock has seen steep drawdowns when market sentiment flips.

For sellers, the takeaway is simple: don’t assume any platform is invincible. Plan for:

• Fee changes and pricing updates
• Shifts in advertising effectiveness and costs
• More aggressive pushes into owned brands and first-party offerings

Building your own brand equity and owning your customer relationships is the most reliable hedge.

9. What Smart Sellers Should Do Next

When you zoom out, the pattern is clear: Black Friday 2025 is not just about discounts. It’s about trust, resilience and intelligent operations.

Here’s a practical checklist you can use this week:

• Strengthen trust
  • Clean up your pricing, titles and descriptions
  • Highlight guarantees, warranties and clear return policies
  • Showcase real reviews and UGC
• Protect your logistics
  • Spread inventory across multiple fulfillment options
  • Plan for delays from strikes, closures and layoffs
  • Communicate proactively with customers about shipping
• Master after-sales
  • Stay on top of return and refund SLAs (especially on TikTok Shop)
  • Use automation to route, tag and prioritize tickets
  • Analyze return reasons and fix repeat issues
• Use AI where it actually helps
  • Automate catalog cleanup and content generation
  • Power smarter recommendations and search
  • Summarize customer feedback to guide product and policy changes

If you’re using (or planning to use) Quixess, you can turn much of this into a repeatable system: automated inventory syncs, marketplace-specific rules, AI-assisted listing content and centralized reporting across Amazon, TikTok Shop, Walmart and beyond.

Final Thoughts: Trust Is the New Doorbuster

In previous years, the biggest Black Friday winners were the brands with the loudest discounts and the deepest inventory. In 2025, the winners will be the ones shoppers actually trust.

Customers are more skeptical, supply chains are more fragile, and platforms are evolving faster than ever. But that also means there is a huge opportunity for sellers who are transparent, organized and willing to adapt quickly.

If you focus on delivering real value, communicating clearly and using automation wisely, you can turn this chaotic season into your most strategic one yet—and keep those customers coming back long after the sales banners come down.